The Eclectic Quill

July 15, 2008

Morneau Hits More? No! And All-Star Game Preview

Filed under: Sports — Kelly @ 5:20 pm

As the "Eclectic" in the name implies there’s more to this blog than politics. So today, I thought I’d pipe in with a little hardball talk. Yesterday’s display of power by Hamilton has the sporting world abuzz with talk today. Yet there’s a sort of bitter after taste with many as they feel that the fact he didn’t win is somehow "unfair."

Surely his 28 colossal shots are impressive, but many a slugger has learned the same thing. It’s not the first time that the first round leader lost. In fact its part of the strategy that has evolved over the years. The reason Hamilton lost the contest is not the rules, it’s that he only hit 3 homers in the finals.

OK moving on to the All Star Game. I wanted to look at the starting lineups by EQA, just for grins. In case you don’t know EQR stands for Equivalent Runs, it’s a sabermetric which is based on EqA which is a sabermetric with this formula . EqA is one of those things that tries to analyze the numbers in a neutral way to determine who the best hitters are, regardless of teammates, ballparks, leagues etc.


Player S/G Pos EQR
L. Berkman S 1B 86.4
C. Utley S 2B 76.2
C. Jones S 3B 76.3
G. Soto S C 54.9
A. Pujols S DH 79.8
K. Fukodome S OF 49.1
R. Braun S OF 63.8
M. Holliday S OF 63.8
H.Ramirez S SS 81

Total Starters EQR: 631.3


A. Gonzalez R 1B 66.9
D. Uggla R 2B 66.8
A. Ramierez R 3B 59.5
D. Wright R 3B 70.2
B. McCAnn R C 60.6
R. Martin R C 56.7
C. Hart R OF 57
A. Soriano R OF 35.2
N. McLouth R OF 76.3
R. Ludwick R OF 64.9
C. Guzman R SS 50.8
M. Tejada R SS 44.8

Reserves Total: 709.7
Grand Total: 1341.0


K. Youkalis S 1B 59.5
D. Pedroia S 2B 59.4
D. Jeter S SS 43.3
A. Rodriguez* S 3B 56.3
J.Mauer S C 58.8
M. Ramierez S OF 58.1
J. Hamilton S OF 71.3
I. Suzuki S OF 58
M. Bradley S DH 65.7

Total Starters EQR: 530.4


J. Morneau R 1B 70.1
I.Kinsler R 2B 81.1
J. Crede R 3B 38.5
C. Guillen R 3B 43.4
E. Longoria R 3B 57.5
D. Naverro R C 35.1
J. Varitek R C 24.2
JD Drew R OF 58.6
C. Quneton R OF 57.7
G. Sizemore R OF 69.9
N. Young R SS 53.8

Reserves Total:589.9
Grand Total: 1120.3

As you can see from this, for once the NL starting lineup is a heck of a lot more potent. I’m not bothering with the pitchers because I don’t think it much enters into the picture in all star games. The starters down the line have an advantage for the NL–here’s a look at that. The numbers refer to the +/- of AL to NL, i.e. Berkman has a 26.9 advantage over Youkalis so it’s a -26.9.

1B -26.9
2B -16.8
3B -20
C 3.9
DH -14.1
OF 10.7
SS -37.7

The NL has a HUGE advantage in their infield (totaling more than 80 more than the AL) while the AL has a marginal lead in the OF. The NL also might have the best hitter in the game as their DH.

I think the AL has a solid advantage in the closers so if the AL has a lead late that should go to their advantage, but I doubt it will. I don’t see the AL stopping this lineup the NL is going to field. It’s the strongest NL team in over a decade and for that reason the NL should win and end the streak.

*Rodriguez missed some games so his EQR is a little lower than it should be. Of course the same could be said about Pujols in the NL so I don’t think that makes a great deal of difference.

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